Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Wonder why BYU wants to go?

This is courtesy a mathematically inclined fan (not me):

For the past couple of days, I've been trying to work out a model that would show - in very clear terms - what BYU's opportunity cost is to stay in the MWC. Along with that model, I wanted to show our poor MWC little brothers just how much we've been carrying them over the past 4 years.  Here's the first draft that I wanted to get everyone's feedback on.
Fanbase model:  I took the total # of enrolled students, divided by 4, then multiplied by the expected remaining lifespan of a college graduate (40) then multiplied by the average number of children than the demographic has (1.83 for the general population and 3 for Mormons).  The outlier here was AFA, so I included ROTC #'s from other schools to get their total enrollment to 18,000 instead of 4,500.
Revenue Share & Opportunity Cost model:  I took the mtn contract payout today ($12M/year divided by 9 = $1.3M/school) and then subtracted what the BYU subsidy essentially is if we were to calculate what a proportional revenue sharing arrangement would look like.  The numbers below will make this clearer.
Univ. Fanbase   %Share  (Subsidy)/OppCost
AFA     329,400   7%    $(1,062,737.26)
BYU   1,478,370  30%     $6,666,666.67 
CSU     455,213   9%      $(959,384.59)
UNM     634,534  13%      $(812,075.09)
SDSU    537,178  11%      $(892,051.26)
TCU     159,137   3%    $(1,202,605.36)
UNLV    531,963  11%      $(896,335.70)
UofU    514,779  11%      $(910,451.80)
WYO     228,677   5%    $(1,145,479.52)
Univ. Totals
AFA   $(5,313,686)
BYU   $33,333,333 
CSU   $(4,796,923)
UNM   $(4,060,375)
SDSU  $(4,460,256)
TCU   $(6,013,027)
UNLV  $(4,481,679)
UofU  $(4,552,259)
WYO   $(5,727,398)
That's right folks... that's a $33M opportunity cost for BYU since 2006 with the inception of the mtn.  Even calculating the Yewt's and TCU's BCS winnings after these #'s (which effectively netted BYU about $2M total between the two appearances) all schools are still heavily subsidized by BYU.  We should start sending out bills to the different schools in the MWC and call it the 'keep the conference together tax.'