Wonder why BYU wants to go?

This is courtesy a mathematically inclined fan (not me):

For the past couple of days, I've been trying to work out a model that would show - in very clear terms - what BYU's opportunity cost is to stay in the MWC. Along with that model, I wanted to show our poor MWC little brothers just how much we've been carrying them over the past 4 years.  Here's the first draft that I wanted to get everyone's feedback on.

Fanbase model:  I took the total # of enrolled students, divided by 4, then multiplied by the expected remaining lifespan of a college graduate (40) then multiplied by the average number of children than the demographic has (1.83 for the general population and 3 for Mormons).  The outlier here was AFA, so I included ROTC #'s from other schools to get their total enrollment to 18,000 instead of 4,500.

Revenue Share & Opportunity Cost model:  I took the mtn contract payout today ($12M/year divided by 9 = $1.3M/school) and then subtracted what the BYU subsidy essentially is if we were to calculate what a proportional revenue sharing arrangement would look like.  The numbers below will make this clearer.

Annual

Univ. Fanbase   %Share  (Subsidy)/OppCost

AFA     329,400   7%    $(1,062,737.26)

BYU   1,478,370  30%     $6,666,666.67 

CSU     455,213   9%      $(959,384.59)

UNM     634,534  13%      $(812,075.09)

SDSU    537,178  11%      $(892,051.26)

TCU     159,137   3%    $(1,202,605.36)

UNLV    531,963  11%      $(896,335.70)

UofU    514,779  11%      $(910,451.80)

WYO     228,677   5%    $(1,145,479.52)

Historical

Univ. Totals

AFA   $(5,313,686)

BYU   $33,333,333 

CSU   $(4,796,923)

UNM   $(4,060,375)

SDSU  $(4,460,256)

TCU   $(6,013,027)

UNLV  $(4,481,679)

UofU  $(4,552,259)

WYO   $(5,727,398)

That's right folks... that's a $33M opportunity cost for BYU since 2006 with the inception of the mtn.  Even calculating the Yewt's and TCU's BCS winnings after these #'s (which effectively netted BYU about $2M total between the two appearances) all schools are still heavily subsidized by BYU.  We should start sending out bills to the different schools in the MWC and call it the 'keep the conference together tax.'

Guard Marsha Henderson leaves Utah, taken 5th in WNBA draft

According to a recent press release University of Utah guard Marsha Henderson has left the school in order to pursue a professional basketball career. According to inside sources Henderson has indeed declared for the WNBA draft. Henderson made his decision after he was told by WNBA scouts that he would be a first round draft pick. Marsha was selected with the 5th overall pick by the San Antonio Silver Stars. (Above: Henderson gets ready for WNBA play) San Antonio GM Dan Hughs said that Henderson's 1-20 shooting would be "a big boost" for the Silver Stars. The news was announced this morning during the WNBA draft but due to the fact that no one was watching or paying any attention, it took a while for the news to get out. According to the Silver Stars coach Sandy Brondello, "It will be great to have someone like Marsha on the team. With the way he er I mean she raises her hand in the air with three fingers when she finally makes a shot, that is impressive. Between Marsha and that one Olympic runner that got caught using steroids, we should have a pretty good team." Coach Brondello who was still crushed after finding out Joakim Noah would not be available for the WNBA draft also commented on Henderson's ability to make shots when no one is guarding her saying "He er I mean she certainly has that ability to score points when no one is around to block her shot so she should do very well in this league." WNBA Commissioner David Stern responded to criticism by saying "No one watches the WNBA anyway, and even if someone does I'm sure they won't notice, he hits like a girl and he whines like a girl. Most of the girls playing look more like men anyway". Henderson will begin practicing with the Silver Stars in June.

Cougar fans bid Farewell to Seniors

This Saturday will mark the last home game for BYU Seniors Jonathan Tavernari, Lamont Morgan, Jr. and Chris Miles. All three players hold a special place in the heart of BYU fans. Saturday will also be the last time for most fans to witness live the heart, determination and skill that these three have shown us throughout their careers. I will be at the Marriott Center on Saturday at two to bid farewell, but this is why I will miss each one:

Jonathan Tavernari: Watching Tavernari play is like riding on a roller coaster. Their were highs and there were lows, but the highs were so fun that you get right back in line to see if you can take another ride. BYU will miss JT's three point shots but they will also miss his rebounding ability and his quick hands. When JT arrived on campus he was a three point shooter with a quick and a pretty turn-around J. As teams put more focus on the former MWC Freshman of the year he was forced to become a more complete player and that he did. JT is an excellent rebounder and there aren't very many people in the conference that can get their hands into the passing lane as well as JT does.

Best Game: November 23, 2007 BYU took on and beat then #6 Louisville. JT lead the Cougars with 29 pts on 5-11 shooting from behind the arc. He also brought in 7 rebounds and a team high 2 steals.

Why you will miss JT: First of all you won't find a better team player than JT. He has caught a lot of flack from some very uneducated fans for his streaky shooting. Even he will admit that he has had some rough patches, but what he has done this year should gain the respect of every Cougar fan. Early in the season when JT was struggling he suggested that the team would benefit from him coming off the bench as a sixth man. That is something only a team player will do. So just how good is JT right now? Well he's 13-26 from behind the arc in the last 4 games and has come up with big shot after big shot. Yes, "JT for 3" will surely be missed.

Lamont Morgan Jr.: Lamont's quickness and maturity at the back-up point position has been fun to watch over his career. Had he not been behind possibly the greatest point guard in BYU history, he might have been even better. It is hard to explain to most people why Morgan is so important to this team. To the untrained eye he looks like a run of the mill back up point guard who averaged a mere 3.4 points per game and to go along with 1 assist. The one thing that can somewhat explain how popular Lamont is among his teammates is that he was elected team captain his senior year. Lamont has an infectious personality that is hard not like. You've got to love his smile and his work ethic. From Cougar fans every where: Thanks and Good Luck Lamont!
many

Chris Miles: If you've watched any games this year you will quickly realize that Miles is the glue to this teams defense. One of my favorite moments this year was watching Utah's Foster catch the ball on the low block and then end up taking a 15' turn around because Miles completely owned him. When Miles is on the low block I don't worry about anybody being a post scoring threat. He didn't block shots, but nobody has the footwork and positioning that he does. Miles is a very good defensive player who works harder than anybody else on the court. In case you don't watch very much basketball I just want to point out some of the little things that Miles does that helps the Cougars win and that will be missed when he leaves: Miles gets up and down the court like no other big man in the league. This wears down opposing big men because they are forced to sprint up and down the court in order to keep up with Miles. Chris is very good at boxing his guy completely out of an area. This allows every one else to get the rebound and often shuts down the other teams best rebounder. Miles gets the crowd going too. I can remember many times when the fans seem to be asleep or reading the newspaper. Miles' energy was so infectious that those fans had no choice but to get on their feet. A lot of the things that Miles does don't show up in the stat sheet but I hope Miles knows how much fans appreciate his work ethic. Good luck Chris, you will be missed.

Oh yeah and one more thing that these guys will be remembered for by the end of the year: 4 MWC championships in 4 years. 'Nuff Said.

Henderbaby

This photo is brought to you courtesy of my wife... pretty funny stuff.

What to Watch for: BYU vs New Mexico

First and foremost you should watch out for the snake.----->

But that goes in the category of watching out and not watching for...

1. Secret Weapon Elizabeth Lambert. Ok so this might also fall in the category of what to watch out for, but unless you have a pony tail and you're attending the game, you should be safe. The Lobos are likely to suit up Lambert in an attempt to slow down Fredette. If Fredette can stay away from the kicks to the face he should be fine as the Cougars have already preempted the Lambert move by making all their players wear short hair cuts. Thank you Honor Code.

2.Watch for Tyler Haws to have another big game. I think opposing coaches are playing the percentages and allowing Haws to get open looks while trying to shut down Fredette and Emery. The thinking is that a Freshman is less likely to hit big shots than a seasoned veteran. The problem is that Haws does not play like a freshman. New Mexico plays an extended man to man defense that opens up the mid range jumper. The Lobos will try to shut down the three and the drive to the basket and that will leave Haws with his bread and butter mid range J.

3. The Lobos will focus their whole defensive game plan on Jimmer, but it won't work. Fredette will once again put this team on his back and carry them when they need him most. I'm seeing another 30 point outing from the Junior superstar.

4. Jax will break out of mid season slump and hit some big shots for the Cougars. Emery started out the season on fire from behind the arc but defenses have started focusing on him more and as a result his shot percentage has gone down. He will once again pick up some of the scoring load and have somewhere around 15 points.

5. BYU will establish themselves in the low post before they look for the outside shot. Look for one of our big men (Miles, Hartsock, or Davies) to score in the double digits this contest.

6. BYU 72 New Mexico 67

BYU vs SDSU 10 things to look for

Before you sit down to watch the game on Saturday you might want to print this list off and follow along as the game goes on. (If you get lost during the game, it's not that I'm wrong, everyone else must be doing it wrong)

1. In the 5 road games that Jimmer Fredette has started this year he is averaging 29 pts on 58% from the field while averaging 6 assists and 2 steals per game. Those are some really impressive numbers. Expect Jimmer to come out and do something really similar. A great game and a win for the Cougars would all but seal his bid at MWC POY.

2. Watch and see how Miles, Hartsock and Davies handle SDSU's "athletic bigs". They did an exceptional job against UTEP and Fresno St. who both have very athletic big men. They'll need to stay out of foul trouble and give the offense a consistent low block presence. SDSU is a terrible shooting free throw team and so I wouldn't be surprised if BYU doubles on the low block and tries to make SDSU earn their points from the charity stripe.

3. Tyler Haws has really stepped up his game when other teams try to take away Jimmer and Jax. If SDSU has watched any film they will know this and will have to pay more attention to the Freshman. If they don't Haws will have another 20 point game.

4. The MWC Freshman of the Year award has become a two horse race between SDSU freshman Kawhi Leonard and Tyler Haws. It will be fun to see which of these two is able to step up his game in a big time setting. My money is on Haws. Look for him to stay cool and calm under pressure as he runs away with the FOY honors.

5. Which bench player will have a career game? Will it be JT? Maybe Lamont Morgan? Or will Lloyd come through again? JT has really embraced his role as the 6th man and is arguably the best 6th man in the conference if not the country. If he plays within the offense and doesn't force up shots, he will have a big game. Watch for JT to take advantage of all the attention that Jax, Jimmer and now Haws will draw from the SDSU defense.

6. Watch for SDSU to put some full court pressure on the Cougars. They will try and get our guards out of rhythm early by trapping and extending the defense well beyond the 3 point line. They will find out as Wyoming did, that BYU is just too deep and BYU has too many shooters. When SDSU pressures up front a lot of space opens up for our mid range jump shooters like Haws and Hartsock who will take advantage of this and knock down their J's to keep BYU in the lead.

7. Pay attention to how BYU uses its depth to wear teams down. A lot of teams this year have been able to hang around for half a game and a few have lasted longer but BYU starts to poor it on at about the 10 minute mark. They are very deep and have the ability to run opposing teams into the ground.

8. Look for BYU to employ a zone defense. BYU's guards are very good at getting into the passing lanes. SDSU struggled against our zone last year when we beat them in San Diego and I think you will see a similar drought on Saturday. Coach Rose knows exactly when to use the zone to get fast break points and put a game away.

9. SDSU is a very good offensive rebounding team. Over the course of the year BYU has turned into one of the nations best defensive rebounding teams. This will the match up that decides the game. If BYU can control the defensive glass and limit SDSU to one shot then they will be able to get up the court and run on SDSU all night.

10. 81-71

MWC Bowl Predictions

"Surely, the NCAA and Division I-A football can join the other 23 intercollegiate sports and devise a system that determines a true champion, preserves the integrity of the game and levels the playing field.”— Retired Brigham Young football coach LaVell Edwards, to the Senate Judiciary Committee October 2003

“To be frank with you, I don’t know what the reasons are not to have a playoff, You can talk about missing class and all that kind of stuff, [yet] you see basketball go on forever. You have a lot of bogus excuses, but obviously the majority of people who have the say don’t want it.” Penn State Head Coach Joe Paterno

I'll just let those quotes be my BCS "rant" for the day, so here are my predictions:

NEW MEXICO BOWL SATURDAY DEC 19, 2:30 pm MT
Fresno St. vs Wyoming: Fresno St. is another one of those Jekyll and Hide teams. They got cut up by Nevada like boarding house pie, but they also beat a descent Illinois team on the road their last time out. This is a tough draw for Wyoming and one of a few tough match ups for the MWC. Congrats to UW on their first bowl game in a while but I don't think they'll be able to pull off the upset. I've got Fresno St. 28 Wyoming 21

MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS (aka Las Vegas Bowl or the Cougar Bowl, not to be confused with Cougar Town) TUESDAY DEC 22, 6:00 pm MT

18 Oregon St. vs 14 BYU

This is by far one of the best bowl games of the season, it pits two ranked teams from two very good conferences. Both teams have very good offenses. Myth: Both teams have a suspect defense. Fact: BYU's defense has performed extremely well all year with one glaring exception, FSU. BYU has done well this year against pocket passers in run-heavy offenses. OSU's QB is an exceptional pocket passer and he will get his points against this BYU defense. OSU's RB (Jaques Rodgers, yeah the guy who tore up USC a couple years ago) is great NFL bound running back. If BYU can slow him down and force a few third and longs then they will be alright. I expect this game to be a shootout with both offenses putting on a show. Whichever defense can make the big plays will come out on top. Max Hall has a big monkey off his back now that he has beaten Utah 2 out of 3 times. He also owns the BYU record for most wins in a career and he will be relaxed and looking to go out with a bang. He will lead BYU to a game winning TD drive in the 4th Quarter. BYU 42 OSU 35

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL Wednesday Dec 23, 6:00 pm MT

23 Utah vs California

I don't like Utah, in fact I hate them (not really). If Utah wins this match up then the MWC will finish with 3 ranked teams for the second consecutive year. So I will be cheering for Utah this time, but I will probably feel the need to shower soon after the game is over. I'm going to predict a very nice game for the Freshman QB for Utah. Utah 38 Cal 21

BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL Thursday DEC 31, 10:00 AM MT

Air Force vs Houston

This is another very good but very tough match up for both teams. Air Force's defense is one of the best in the nation but will be looking to recover a bit from the shalacking that BYU handed them their last time out. Houston has a very good offense and one of the best passers in the Nation in Case Keenum. I'm not sure what two expect but something has got to give so lets just hope that Air Force's defense learned something from Max Hall. Air Force 28 Houston 42

TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL Monday JAN 4, 6:00 pm MT

6 BSU vs 4 TCU

I can't wait for this game. TCU has got something to prove and so does BSU. When I first caught wind of this match up I was a bit disappointed but after thinking about it, this should be a very good game. TCU is one of the best teams in the country largely because of it's defense. BSU is one of the best because of it's offense. TCU's defense is better than BSU offense though. BSU is a similar team to BYU. BYU could have very likely gone undefeated with BSU's schedule. As much as a hate to say it TCU's beating of BYU was not a fluke. Their defense will do the same thing to BSU. However, BSU has a lot to play for and they won't take it lying down. They will probably do about what they did last year against TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl.

TCU 28 BSU 21

Basically I'm expecting the Big 3 to win their games and the other two bowl teams to come up a bit short. 3-2 with this years match ups will be very big for the MWC. Any upset that Wyoming or Air Force can pull off will be icing on the cake. Get your chips and salsa and grab a Dr. Pepper folks (caffeine free of course) cause "it's the most wonderful time of the year"!